4 uncertainty in the business

4 uncertainty in the business
1. Clear Enough Future. Managers can develop a single forecasting quite appropriate for the development strategy.
2. Alternate Futures. At this level, the future can be described as a result of a number of alternative scenarios or diskret. Analysis can not identify the results that will appear, but can help determine the probability.
3. A Range of Futures. At this level, an area which may result in the future can be identified. Area defined by a certain number of key variables, but real results can be located anywhere along the area.
4. True ambiguity. At level four, the various dimensions of uncertainty interact to create environments that are virtual impossible to predict.
Why the same two products, sold by two different companies, different results? A company making products that can be sold, not selling a product that can be made, therefore we need to identify customers and identify their needs. Thus, we can meet customers' needs. One of the failure of new products, is usually wrong because they recognize the needs of consumers. The company expects customers to be customers, so that there is continuity of purchase.
In fulfillment of consumer needs, we can not create a product to meet all needs. Product diversification needs to be done to serve all needs. Various efforts made to make the company's customers feel special. In addition to increasing sales is to build customer loyalty.
Companies must have a clear goal, so that those who run the organization know what you want can be achieved and the planning and implementation.
Simplification should be done to improve the efficiency of the company. Bureaucracy companies involved will not make the company efficient and costs arise that are not necessary. Besides bureaucracy impedes information flow in organizations.
Use of technology needed, but do not make us depending on the technology. The use of technology can also improve the efficiency of the company, for example, to store company files. Computer technology and accelerate the flow of information to assist in decision making.
Company's ability to manage information to predict the future, beneficial for the company to make a response back, for example, there is a change in consumer tastes. If the company can read this trend, it will be the opportunity for the company.
In decision making, need to have involvement from the subordinate so that the subordinate was involved responsible for implementing the decisions taken.
Companies need to determine the appropriate strategy to achieve the vision or purpose. Companies need to observe changes in the environment so quickly to maintain the benefits of competing with the other. Information flow so rapidly that with modern technology to support changes that occur.
The business environment is always changing, companies need the external environment and internal business environment. Thus the company can see what the threats, opportunities, strengths and weakness of the company. Something that is seen to be a threat for the company with the changes may be the opportunity, the opportunity will be a threat. This analysis is called SWOT analysis. With SWOT analysis of the company can immediately provide a response to the needs of consumers and maintain the market from competitors.

In the face of uncertain environment and it is always changing, companies need to develop a strategy that is capable of directing the company to the destination. In the environment that is not certain, the traditional approach in the planning strategy can be dangerous.
Uncertainty in the business environment can be divided into four levels, namely: a clear-enough future, alternate futures, a range of futures, and true ambiguity.
So that managers are able to develop the right strategy in the environment that is not certain, necessary instruments of analysis, including (starting from a tool for analysis of the level of uncertainty I):
o traditional strategies.
o decision analysis, option-valuation model, game theory.
o Research-latent demand, technology forecasting, scenario planning.
o introduction of analogy and pattern, model dynamic non-linear.

There are three strategic postures that can be selected by the company in the face of uncertainty, namely shaping, adapting, and reserving the right to play. There are three kinds of movements in the portfolio of action that can be used to implement a strategy that is big bets, options, and no-regrets moves.
In the uncertain environment that required a strategy that is not rigid, but can adapt to the changes that occur in the environment around the company, whether the environment in or outside the company.
reference :

Dow, Roger and Susan Cook, "Time to Turn On Your Organization", World Executive Digest, December 1997, p.26-30.

Courtney, Hugh, Jane Kirkland, and Patrick Viguerie, "Strategy Under Uncertainty", Harvard Business Review, November-December 1997, p.67-79.


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